Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

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Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

Postby gmartin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:47 am

This is very interesting. Won't know until after Friday's results but things are very interesting. BG STILL HAS A CHANCE!! Bowling Green is tied at pairwise at 16 with Northern Michigan. If Northern Michigan wins the WCHA Championship on Saturday they are obviously in. If they lose to Michigan Tech they will drop below Bowling Green in pairwise and Michigan Tech is in. Obviously the conference is getting two teams in. The interesting thing is North Dakota, Boston U and Boston College. The NCHC along with his championship game plays a third-place game and that extra game could cost North Dakota. If North Dakota would happen to lose Friday and then lose the 3rd place game they would drop below Bowling Green and Bowling Green would move up to 15 pairwise. Also, on Friday Boston College and Boston U play each other. If Boston U beats BC on Friday, Boston College will drop below us and Boston U will then go up to the 15th spot, pushing BG back down to 16. pushing BG back down to 16 Then on Saturday Boston U needs to lose in the championship game. That would move BG back up to the 15th spot and Boston U would drop down to number 16. The Atlantic Hockey Conference comes outside of the top 16 pairwise and gets the automatic bed. So in this situation BG would finish number 15 and secure the final seed. So once again this needs to happen.

* North Dakota must lose its semifinal game and then lose the third-place game. Need North Dakota to lose both games this coming weekend.
* Boston U must beat Boston College on Friday to knock them below us. And then Saturday Boston U wants to lose in the championship game to drop below us and move us up to number 15.
* The winner of the Michigan Tech / Northern Michigan game is irrelevant. The winner gets the automatic berth along with Minnesota State.

Not sure how they work this out. I would assume the hockey Atlantic conference would get the number 15 seed and Bowling Green would then get the number 16 seed.

But unbelievably, there still is a chance!!!!!

Now since I did the work let's see how long it takes for Mr. John Wagner to copy my research and post it in The Blade.
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Re: Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

Postby BGhockeyfan94 » Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:59 am

Would either Cornell or Clarkson have to win the ECAC tournament as well? If Princeton or Harvard were to win, wouldn't that knock us out, if everything in your scenario happened or am I missing something?
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Re: Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

Postby pdt1081 » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:04 am

At this point, the top 14 secure spots in the tournament. That's with the rest of the AQs going to currently "in" teams. 16 will be the AHA team, 15 will be Tech/NMU.
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Re: Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

Postby gmartin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:18 am

BGhockeyfan94 wrote:Would either Cornell or Clarkson have to win the ECAC tournament as well? If Princeton or Harvard were to win, wouldn't that knock us out, if everything in your scenario happened or am I missing something?


Crap!! I forgot about that one.
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Re: Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

Postby gmartin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:24 am

pdt1081 wrote:At this point, the top 14 secure spots in the tournament. That's with the rest of the AQs going to currently "in" teams. 16 will be the AHA team, 15 will be Tech/NMU.


That is correct. But as I stated if North Dakota would lose both games they would actually drop below number 16 and drop below BG. And then we need the BU/BC scenario. I'm not too concerned about the Princeton or Harvard situation.

The top 13 spots are locks. If North Dakota wins just one of its remaining two games than they are locked for 14 and knocks out BG completely. But if North Dakota loses both games, then the final spot ( after you put in the WCHA champion and Atlantic hockey champion) the final spot will be between Boston College, Boston U and BG.
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Re: Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

Postby TalonsUpPuckDown » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:41 am

Not following the WCHA tournament piece of this. If NMU wins we're not out -- wouldn't they be #15 and push us out? If Tech wins, they go to the 15/16 spot with AHC and we go to 14 (assuming all your other UND/BC/BU scenarios hold)?
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Re: Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

Postby AZIce » Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:55 pm

CHN's pairwise probability matrix says we are done.....and that's with 20,000 simulations. I think you have your math wrong somewhere. There is no way for us to finish higher than 16th.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php

Until we can beat WMU and Miami we won't be getting any at large bids. Funny thing is a win against OSU this year instead of MSU and we'd be in already......we lost the OSU games when the B1G added ND to the schedules. Oh well, maybe next year......which it seems we say every year.
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Re: Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

Postby Schadenfreude » Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:17 pm

AZIce wrote:we lost the OSU games when the B1G added ND to the schedules.


Really? So the Buckeyes don't want to play us at all now?

That's disappointing, to say the least. Those were some really good games these past few years.

In a fair and just world, Miami, Ohio State, and Bowling Green would play a pair of games each season for an Ohio Cup, kind of like the service academies do in football.
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Re: Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

Postby mbenecke » Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:27 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:
AZIce wrote:we lost the OSU games when the B1G added ND to the schedules.


Really? So the Buckeyes don't want to play us at all now?

That's disappointing, to say the least. Those were some really good games these past few years.

In a fair and just world, Miami, Ohio State, and Bowling Green would play a pair of games each season for an Ohio Cup, kind of like the service academies do in football.


I don't think that's quite true. In speaking to Coach last fall, he made it sound like they were off the schedule for the GLI only, and they would be back next season. It sounds like we're sticking to a WMU-Miami-OSU non-confernce for the foreseeable future, with one more opponent that is different each year.

I could be wrong, though. It's happened before.
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Re: Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

Postby AZIce » Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:35 pm

We lost the OSU games THIS YEAR when the B1G sent OSU to Wisconsin the weekend they were supposed to play a home and home with us. This was done to facilitate the addition of ND to the B1G schedule THIS year. I assume OSU will be back going forward.
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Re: Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

Postby Schadenfreude » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:07 pm

AZIce wrote:We lost the OSU games THIS YEAR when the B1G sent OSU to Wisconsin the weekend they were supposed to play a home and home with us. This was done to facilitate the addition of ND to the B1G schedule THIS year. I assume OSU will be back going forward.


Thanks for clarifying!
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Re: Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

Postby TalonsUpPuckDown » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:15 pm

Saw another online analysis that has us at 0%. Additionally, both NMU and MTU are win or go home.
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Re: Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

Postby pdt1081 » Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:30 pm

gmartin wrote:
pdt1081 wrote:At this point, the top 14 secure spots in the tournament. That's with the rest of the AQs going to currently "in" teams. 16 will be the AHA team, 15 will be Tech/NMU.


That is correct. But as I stated if North Dakota would lose both games they would actually drop below number 16 and drop below BG. And then we need the BU/BC scenario. I'm not too concerned about the Princeton or Harvard situation.

The top 13 spots are locks. If North Dakota wins just one of its remaining two games than they are locked for 14 and knocks out BG completely. But if North Dakota loses both games, then the final spot ( after you put in the WCHA champion and Atlantic hockey champion) the final spot will be between Boston College, Boston U and BG.


gmartin wrote:...... So in this situation BG would finish number 15 and secure the final seed. So once again this needs to happen.


I think this is where you lost your train of thought.


It's "0.0005" all over again. We know how that returning team responded, we'll see how these guys respond next year.
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Re: Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

Postby BGDrew » Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:52 pm

I thought I had heard that Miami might not be on the schedule not year, but I could be wrong on that.

Canisius still owes us a game in Bowling Green as well.
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Re: Season NOT over yet, still a very slim chance

Postby gmartin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:07 pm

pdt1081 wrote:
gmartin wrote:
pdt1081 wrote:At this point, the top 14 secure spots in the tournament. That's with the rest of the AQs going to currently "in" teams. 16 will be the AHA team, 15 will be Tech/NMU.


That is correct. But as I stated if North Dakota would lose both games they would actually drop below number 16 and drop below BG. And then we need the BU/BC scenario. I'm not too concerned about the Princeton or Harvard situation.

The top 13 spots are locks. If North Dakota wins just one of its remaining two games than they are locked for 14 and knocks out BG completely. But if North Dakota loses both games, then the final spot ( after you put in the WCHA champion and Atlantic hockey champion) the final spot will be between Boston College, Boston U and BG.


gmartin wrote:...... So in this situation BG would finish number 15 and secure the final seed. So once again this needs to happen.


I think this is where you lost your train of thought.


It's "0.0005" all over again. We know how that returning team responded, we'll see how these guys respond next year.


Yup, I was off by one spot. I guess that slurpie gave me a brain freeze too early in the morning.
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