Improved team from last year???

Discussion of the Falcon football team.

Re: Improved team from last year???

Postby MarkL » Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:53 pm

A solid defense that consistently allows 200 or 300 yards per game on the ground is not a solid defense. That's the biggest reason we are losing games. We are not controlling the pace of the game. If you want a new o line coach, QB coach, and OC, then you might as well also get a new DC and DL coach. By that point you might as well clean the house. That's not going to happen in 10 days.
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Re: Improved team from last year???

Postby hiway44 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:07 pm

Defense is giving those yards up yes. Maybe because they are on the field 75 % of the time. If the offense had any kind of clock management that would decrease those yards. Football is played on both sides. It's clear we have had zero O this year. The Defense is giving up yards but look at TOP or snaps. Totally disagree with you.
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Re: Improved team from last year???

Postby Flipper » Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:02 pm

They lack gumption...and moxie...but mostly gumption.

And perhaps a decent strength coach....I don't think we've had a really good, qualified strength coach sine Brandon Hourigan
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Re: Improved team from last year???

Postby hiway44 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:47 pm

Mark is lm, just going off of what espn3 host have been saying. Special teams, punter, top in nation in take aways defense on same level as the best teams in the mac, running back 100 plus yards past 3 games. Looks good enough to me and espn. YES we should have more wins.
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Re: Improved team from last year???

Postby MarkL » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:28 pm

Stats talk here, skip if numbers don't interest you, but if you do not have too much football stats knowledge, give it a read, it might give some insights. And nobody should be surprised around here that I'm a numbers geek. I believe almost any problem can be boiled down to numbers.
So here's why I harp on run defense so much. Of the major defensive stats, the best predictors of success are as follows:
- rush defense ypg
- average defensive ypp
- average offensive ypp
- turnover margin

TO margin: for all we hear about having so many fumble recoveries (12), we cough it up a lot too (9), and we are -5 on interceptions (5 to 10). So we are -2 on TO margin, which is not too bad. That's not the reason we are losing so much.
Offensive ypp: we come up with 4.9 ypp, which is barely top 100 nationwide. Not good, but if you have a solid defense it's workable. See 2012 team.
Here's where it gets ugly
Defensive ypp: 6.8. 123rd out of 130 teams. Ugly ugly ugly. That means opponents come up play to play with a lot of success and also have a lot of big plays. Without a great offense, you can't offset that kind of lack of defensive success. Teams below us: Georgia Southern, Kansas, Air Force, East Carolina, Baylor, Tulsa, Hawaii. Combined record of those 7 teams: 11-39. 2 of those teams are winless and 3 of those 11 wins are over FCS teams.
Defensive rush ypg: this stat shows not just your success stopping the run but also your opponent's willingness to run. Passing is inherently riskier than running. And a good run game can be used to set up bigger pass plays. We allow 268 per game, which is 125th in the country. Below us: Air Force, Vanderbilt, Tulsa, San Jose State, and UCLA. Some of these teams have played teams that naturally rely heavily on the run (Air Force has already played Navy and New Mexico and poor Vandy has already been trounced by Georgia and Alabama) so their stats might normalize some in the final month of the season. UCLA has played some great running teams but their offense can often overcome it. Us, we have no excuses. We've played no option offenses. Our run defense is giving up those numbers, it's that case every week, and it is holding us back, and our offense can't overcome it.

The offense is not pretty. It needs work. The whole team needs work. But the defense? Wow they need help. And it's not like our pass defense is pretty either. They are barely top 100. Of those five worse rush defenses than us, 3 are top 22 pass defense ypg. (See caveat above)

Now I've said in here a good offense can offset defensive problems and vice versa. Two years ago when we won the MAC, we had the best defensive ypg and maybe also best or close to best scoring defense in the conference. That defense was fine. Not great, it was fine. Paired with the 2015 offense, they got the job done. With how our offense is not moving consistently, we would need a far better defense to offset. Or with how bad our defense is, we would need a 2015 type of offense to offset. And our current defense has starters at every level who contributed or in some cases started on that fine defense, so talent is not the problem.

Long winded explanation of why our defense is bad. Really bad. Numbers are fun and we are at a point in the season where one weird or awful game does not offset your stats too badly, so this is statistically my favorite part of the season.
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Re: Improved team from last year???

Postby MarkL » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:39 pm

Quick update to the stats above going back to the topic at hand. The season is not done yet and 2016 Kent State skewed defensive stats for the season our way some. Defense is giving up more rushing ypg and total ypp than last year. So statistically, so far there is not defensive improvement, and it's not like we lost a whole bunch of starters. We are down a good safety for the year.
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Re: Improved team from last year???

Postby hiway44 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:27 pm

Again Mark L. , No offense and no clock management. If you provide a little more offense and use the clock better, the defense is not on the field. Change the time of on field around and we would be winning. You have to have have an offense to go along with the D. Your stats are just stats. Does little for supporting your case.
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Re: Improved team from last year???

Postby Clubber » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:45 pm

hiway44 wrote:Again Mark L. , No offense and no clock management. If you provide a little more offense and use the clock better, the defense is not on the field. Change the time of on field around and we would be winning. You have to have have an offense to go along with the D. Your stats are just stats. Does little for supporting your case.


Do you drink excessively before you post?
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Re: Improved team from last year???

Postby BGSU33 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:15 am

Flipper wrote:Jinks appears to be the guy that has no clue how to fix the mess he's in...so he's just gonna start saying s**t to deflect attention from his glaring incompetence


Exactly. And after the NIU debacle he had the nerve to come out and make the remark about how we can’t get any free agents. Really??? (Kinda reminded me of when Gregg Brandon blew a 20-point 4th quarter game at home to Buffalo to ruin a trip to the MACC and he complained about the attendance of the game). Hey Jinks. You were handed the keys to a program that was built (Clawson) and managed (Babers) by proven coaches before you - that went to THREE consecutive MAC Championships and won two of them, including one right before you got here, and you’ve driven it straight into the ground! There’s not a single fiber of DNA left from what that program was in the past year and a half with you as its head coach. Where’s your accountability in this matter??? This is YOUR team! You’re being paid close to a half a MILLION per year and your program has done what??? Oh yeah, let’s see, suffered two of the worst losses in school history in the first four games of your tenure! Lost to an FCS school for the first time in 30 years! And oh yeah, you’re on pace to lose every home game for the first time in 100 years!!!

If you want to come out and talk about “no free agents” - which by the way is a problem you’re being paid heavily for it not to be an issue with 85 scholarships to use for recruiting, adding JUCO’s or grad transfers and developing players at every position - then at least have the sack to point the finger at yourself (and your staff) as we watch other coaches and players run circles around you week after week. And you know what, we don’t need to “go back and watch the tape.” It’s been scorched into our brains bad enough. The tape isn’t going to show us a good product that we all know doesn’t exist. We all questioned your hire but many of us hoped there was something good we didn’t know about or would be surprised to see. Did we expect a take a step back? Probably. Did we expect some growing pains? Likely. I don’t think any of us expected another MACC title, but most of us at least expected to contend or at least be in the running for the MAC East at the least. But I don’t think any of us could foresee it was going to be this damn bad. Your teams and performances have been atrocious and you’re a defeated coach and it’s written all over your face right now. And guess what? We can’t tap into free agency to get someone to replace you either. So you know those glaring holes you talk about on your team? Well, they are being overshadowed by the one cast by the guy who is supposed to be leading it.
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Re: Improved team from last year???

Postby MarkL » Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:10 am

TOP is a stat you throw out the window with up tempo offenses. Here's a perfect example. In 2009, Cincinnati ranked bottom in the nation in TOP. They went 12-0 that year behind a successful up tempo offense. Our TOP this year is a minute per game under the 2015 team, which won 10 games with an up tempo offense.

If you want better TOP, you need a different type of offense. I would have no complaints with that concept. I would prefer going back to physical dominance on offense (relevant here, our 2013 team led the nation in TOP after the regular season, with a vastly different offense that was DESIGNED to control the clock and aid the defense). But with our current offensive scheme, high TOP is unlikely. By design, the offense is supposed to go quickly which has the side effect of putting your defense back on the field.

Our offense can't score enough to offset a terrible defense that can't stop scores, and our defense is nowhere near successful enough to offset an inconsistent offense. The offense is closer to success than the defense at this point. Earlier in the season I may have said the other way around, but at this point with the offensive running game taking off and the defense giving up such gaudy numbers it is clear that the defensive side of the ball is the one lagging further behind.

And just so we are clear, I pin none of this on the players and all of it on coaching. If the coaches can tell that they do not have the personnel to run their type of offense, then they should run something else in order to aid all three phases of the game. If the coaches can tell they do not have the front seven depth to stop the run, they should blitz more. If our players are unprepared or are not in a good scheme to handle the opposing offense, that is all on coaching and we've seen a lot of that this year.
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Re: Improved team from last year???

Postby Schadenfreude » Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:33 am

Clubber wrote:
hiway44 wrote:Again Mark L. , No offense and no clock management. If you provide a little more offense and use the clock better, the defense is not on the field. Change the time of on field around and we would be winning. You have to have have an offense to go along with the D. Your stats are just stats. Does little for supporting your case.


Do you drink excessively before you post?


For some reason, the mods let you troll here. But this seems even more out of line than usual.
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Re: Improved team from last year???

Postby BGSU33 » Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:54 pm

Two games to go and nope, still not seeing it. We’ll finish with a record even worse than we did last year, we’ve lost to Akron and Buffalo who we both beat last year, and we’ll be winless at home for the first time in 100 years. Those are not marks of improvement whatsoever.
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Re: Improved team from last year???

Postby slashba33 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:35 am

The bottom line is the lack of college coaching experience by Jinks and his staff shows week after week. WE HAVE NO IDENTITY!! Clawson used a stingy defense and balanced offense to win. Babers used a fast, high octane offense to outscore opponents. Jinks was hired by Kingston to maintain a marketing slogan "Falcon Fast" and didn't have the tools to do so. QB situation was questionable, RBs and receivers were inexperienced. I fell for the idea from the last 3 games of the season last year we had gone to a run game with an experienced O-line and 3 good RBs.

Jinks has some good recruiting wins from last year that may materialize, but who will want to come this recruiting cycle to this dumpster fire? Play for a lame-duck coach that took over a championship team and has won 5 games in two years?

Can we sue Kingston with a civil lawsuit for wrongful HIRING?? [-o<
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Re: Improved team from last year???

Postby hiway44 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:46 am

I believe we are not that far off from Ohio. I do believe if we sure up both offensive and defensive line is all we need. A few more experience coaches to help Jinks. Look at other college football schools, very little defense is being played. Babers had 60 points put on the board? Yet his offense could only get 30 pts. Todays football is about the line on both sides of the ball. Solid and aggressive linemen will bring wins in 2018.
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Re: Improved team from last year???

Postby Schadenfreude » Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:38 pm

hiway44 wrote:I believe we are not that far off from Ohio.


I agree with this. If Doege had played, I'm almost certain we would have beaten the Bobcats by more than a touchdown. He would have connected on some deep passes.

We aren't that far away from playing for championships again.
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